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AI Trade Rebounds as Wall Street Reaffirms Capex Supercycle Even as Debt Risks Mount

Banks and regulators warn that debt‑funded data‑center buildouts could threaten stability if revenues lag.

Overview

  • Investor baskets of AI beneficiaries jumped more than 3.5% on Monday as semiconductors rallied and reports said Nvidia asked TSMC to boost chip output.
  • Wedbush and Bank of America reiterated bullish calls on data‑center and chip names, with forecasts that Big Tech AI capital spending could climb from roughly $380 billion this year to $550–$600 billion by 2026.
  • Nvidia remained the focal supplier, with Bank of America citing a $500 billion‑plus 2025–2026 data‑center order outlook and projecting about 50% sales growth and 70% EPS growth in 2026.
  • Skeptics highlighted valuation risks, with Jefferies flagging roughly 60% downside for Palantir and Seaport Research estimating about 46% downside for Nvidia despite recent gains.
  • Systemic concerns intensified as The Age detailed a shift toward debt, SPVs and securitisation to finance trillions in AI infrastructure, even as EPRI projects U.S. data centers could consume up to 9% of electricity by 2030 and hyperscaler spending is pegged at about $375 billion this year and near $450 billion next year.