Overview

• A POSTECH-led team improved prediction accuracy by training AI on observed streamflow to correct biases in complex mountain terrain.
• Projections indicate the Upper Indus faces major floods and severe droughts about every 15 years, with surrounding rivers on roughly 11-year cycles.
• Researchers identify accelerating warming and high-altitude glacier melt as drivers that are reshaping seasonal river flows and increasing extremes.
• The study urges Pakistan to replace one-size-fits-all policies with basin-level management and investments in forecasting capacity.
• The findings drew fresh attention as monsoon flooding prompted evacuations of over one million people in Punjab this week with extensive damage to villages and crops.