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AI Sets 2026 Market Tone: Upgrades, ETF Inflows and Big Orders Confront Bubble Warnings

Investor positioning remains bullish even with high-profile warnings of an early AI bubble.

Overview

  • Fresh survey data show more than 90% of AI-stock and ETF owners plan to hold or add in 2026, as AI-focused funds scale and Goldman Sachs pegs this year’s AI infrastructure spend at about $527 billion.
  • Wall Street raised targets into year-end, and Jefferies upgraded IBM to Buy on expectations of software acceleration from Red Hat momentum and recent cloud-data acquisitions.
  • Broadcom’s custom accelerator push is supported by large commitments, including an Anthropic order reported at roughly $21 billion for TPUs slated for delivery this year.
  • Foundry leader TSMC remains a critical supplier to top AI chip designers, with recent reports citing strong revenue growth and a 2025 share-price surge as the buildout continues.
  • Warnings about overexuberance are growing—Ray Dalio calls AI in the early stage of a bubble and some funds have pared big-tech stakes—yet banks still forecast solid 2026 gains and ongoing capex strength.