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AI Rally Hits a Turning Point as Markets Shift Toward Clear Monetization

Oracle’s steep quarterly selloff and renewed warnings about stretched valuations highlight rising doubts over cash‑intensive AI build‑outs.

Overview

  • Oracle shares have fallen about 30% this quarter, their worst since 2001, after weaker revenue and free cash flow, a planned $50 billion fiscal‑2026 capex, and reported heavy reliance on an OpenAI deal alongside new leases and debt questions.
  • Portfolio managers tell CNBC they expect 2026 to split winners from spenders, with investors favoring businesses that show free‑cash‑flow support for AI returns over those prioritizing large infrastructure outlays.
  • The Bank of England has cautioned that major tech valuations tied to artificial intelligence could face a sharp correction if lofty expectations fade.
  • Private AI investment hit a record roughly $202.3 billion in 2025, helping mint more than 50 new AI billionaires and deepening market concentration in mega‑cap tech leaders.
  • Nvidia’s blockbuster quarter with $57 billion in revenue supported the AI trade even as volatility rose and analysts urged greater differentiation and scrutiny of capital intensity.