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AI Rally Extends Beyond Nvidia as China Stays Out of Its Forecast and Dell Faces Margin Squeeze

Dell raised its AI server shipment target despite weaker profitability.

Overview

  • Nvidia beat estimates and guided roughly $54 billion for the next quarter but kept China out of its outlook, with CEO Jensen Huang reiterating a $3 trillion to $4 trillion AI infrastructure opportunity by decade’s end.
  • Nvidia shares slipped even as the S&P 500 set a fresh high on gains in other AI and megacap tech names, reflecting strong sector enthusiasm despite lofty expectations for the chip leader.
  • Reporting indicated Nvidia has export licenses that include a fee on H20 sales to China and that Huang is open to similar terms for Blackwell if allowed, underscoring the policy-driven constraints on near‑term China revenue.
  • Dell boosted its full‑year AI server shipment goal to $20 billion on “exceptional” demand, but a lower gross margin rate and a softer Q3 profit outlook sent its shares lower.
  • China’s push to reduce reliance on U.S. chips gathered pace, with the Wall Street Journal reporting Alibaba is developing a domestically made inference chip, as officials steer buyers away from Nvidia’s H20 and direct more capacity to local players like Cambricon and SMIC.