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AI Power Tilts to Platforms as OpenAI Braces for Slower Growth and Talent Drain

Google's integrated data, custom chips plus native distribution now outmatch the lab model that fueled OpenAI's rise.

Overview

  • A leaked November 21 memo shows Sam Altman declared OpenAI in a "war-time" posture and warned revenue growth could slow to roughly 5% following Google's Gemini 3.0 debut.
  • Google’s platform edge—first‑party behavioral data, in‑house TPUs and frictionless distribution across Search, YouTube, Android and Gmail—shifts the contest from raw model quality to cost and reach.
  • OpenAI’s 2025 cash burn is reported to exceed $8 billion, with Reuters‑cited internal forecasts projecting about $115 billion in cumulative losses by 2029, pressuring its 2024 $500 billion secondary valuation if growth cools.
  • By December 2025 only Sam Altman and Greg Brockman remain from the original 11‑person founding team, highlighting extensive departures of senior researchers and executives.
  • Meta has built a "Meta Superintelligent Lab," hiring ex‑OpenAI leaders such as Alexandr Wang, Shengjia Zhao and Jason Wei to target advances in reasoning, multimodal systems and post‑training.