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AI Power Crunch Pushes Data Centers Off-Grid, Puts Texas in the Lead

New findings show soaring loads outpacing utilities, prompting calls for long‑term power buying.

Overview

  • Bloom Energy’s 2026 survey says roughly one‑third of data centers are expected to run on 100% onsite power by 2030, with developers shifting to power‑advantaged regions and Texas projected to capture about 30% of the U.S. market by 2028.
  • Texas grid demand linked to data centers is forecast to exceed 40 gigawatts by 2028, while national data center IT load is projected to rise from about 80 GW in 2025 to roughly 150 GW by 2028.
  • Utilities’ delivery timelines are about 1.5–2 years longer than developers expect in hubs such as Northern Virginia, the Bay Area, and Atlanta, accelerating moves to permanent onsite generation using gas turbines and fuel cells.
  • The Department of Energy warns outage risk could be 100 times higher by 2030 if generation and grid upgrades lag, with PJM already reporting strain tied to dense data center clusters in northern Virginia.
  • Policy and enforcement fronts are heating up as the administration and several governors urge PJM to run 15‑year power auctions for tech firms, and the EPA rules that xAI operated methane turbines without required air permits at Tennessee facilities.