Overview
- Micron says its entire 2026 HBM output is allocated and it can meet only about 50%–66% of near‑term AI memory demand, after pivoting away from consumer lines including its Crucial business.
- The company broke ground on a new $100 billion complex near Syracuse and detailed a $1.8 billion Taiwan expansion, though new capacity is not expected to materially ease shortages until late 2027 or later.
- Counterpoint flags a hyper‑bull pricing phase, forecasting 40%–50% DRAM price jumps in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, with 64GB RDIMM rising from $255 to $450 and potentially reaching $700 by March or even $1,000 in some cases.
- Advanced packaging remains a choke point as CoWoS lines run full, with TSMC reportedly booked out and Nvidia reserving more than half its output, even as ASE and Amkor add capacity.
- Downstream pressure is mounting as IDC notes PC makers planning 15%–20% price hikes and the WSJ reports data centers could consume about 70% of global memory in 2026, while the U.S. commerce secretary signals possible 100% tariffs to push more domestic production.