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AI Memory Crunch Triggers 50%–70% DRAM Price Jumps in Q1 as Suppliers Pivot to HBM

AI server builds are soaking up HBM capacity, forcing short-term pricing resets that tighten consumer supply.

Overview

  • Micron said demand has far outpaced supply and reported no remaining 2026 inventory, with major vendors selling out production to datacenter and AI customers.
  • Samsung and SK Hynix are steering buyers to quarterly deals with 60%–70% hikes, while TrendForce projects a 50%–55% DRAM price increase in the first quarter versus late 2025.
  • High‑bandwidth memory consumes roughly three times the capacity of standard DRAM, lifting laptop memory’s cost share and prompting Dell to warn of higher consumer prices.
  • Suppliers are prioritizing HBM3E and preparing HBM4, with Micron planning about 30% of its HBM capacity for HBM4 and a Q2 ramp, as reports dispute Nvidia’s claim that its Vera Rubin platform is already in full production.
  • Samsung’s early Q4 2025 guidance points to a more than threefold profit rise, reinforcing pricing power signals, while Taiwanese prosecutors widened a TSMC 2nm leak probe to include Tokyo Electron.