Overview

• Since late 2022, employment of 22–25-year-old software developers fell about 20% in the ADP payroll data analyzed by Stanford.
• Across the most AI-exposed occupations, young-worker employment declined roughly 6%, compared with a 9% rise in low-AI fields.
• Older workers expanded their presence in high-AI roles, which the authors link to experience that current tools do not duplicate.
• The sharpest effects appear in software development and customer service, while care-related jobs expanded across age groups.
• The analysis uses 3.5–5 million monthly ADP records and Anthropic-based AI-use classifications, and the authors caution about representativeness and causality; German data also show fewer advertised entry-level roles without attributing the drop to AI.