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AI Frenzy Draws Fresh Bubble Warnings as Circular Deals and Debt Concentrate Market Risk

Regulators and analysts caution that valuations look stretched with outsized gains tied to a narrow set of AI plays despite limited monetization.

Overview

  • The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee says the probability of a sharp market correction has increased as AI-linked valuations surge.
  • Commentators highlight vendor-style financing such as the reported NvidiaOpenAI $100 billion framework that ties funding to GPU purchases, drawing parallels to dot‑com era circular deals.
  • A narrow cluster of AI and data‑center names accounts for an estimated majority of recent index returns, earnings growth, and capital spending, concentrating market risk.
  • An MIT finding cited in coverage reports that most firms experimenting with AI are not yet generating profits, reinforcing talk of a move toward Gartner’s “trough of disillusionment.”
  • Rising leverage and policy shifts deepen exposure, with Oracle’s $18 billion bond sale and deregulatory steps reported to channel more pension money into AI and crypto as power‑hungry data centers fuel interest in nuclear options.