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2h ago

AI Demand Drives 60–70% Q1 DRAM Price Jumps as Makers Prioritize Datacenters

With new capacity not expected until 2027–2028, suppliers and analysts warn shortages will persist as rising backend fees push costs higher.

Signage outside the Micron offices in San Jose, California, US, on Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024.
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Overview

  • Samsung and SK Hynix are rejecting long-term contracts in favor of quarterly deals with steep first‑quarter DRAM hikes of about 60–70%, reflecting tight supply and AI-focused allocation.
  • Memory packaging and testing vendors including Powertech, Walton, and ChipMOS have raised prices by up to 30%, with additional increases indicated for later in 2026.
  • Micron is winding down direct consumer sales under Crucial and says meaningful new fab output won’t arrive before 2027–2028, cautioning that DRAM tightness could last years.
  • Major suppliers report 2026 production largely committed to AI and server customers, with TrendForce projecting a 50–55% DRAM price rise for Q1 and inventories effectively exhausted.
  • Samsung’s Q4 2025 guidance shows a sharp profit surge tied to firmer memory pricing, while buyers like Apple face fresh renegotiations and memory now accounts for roughly 20% of smartphone build cost.