Overview
- Microsoft disclosed a $625 billion backlog with roughly 45% tied to OpenAI, reported $37.5 billion in quarterly capex with about two-thirds for GPUs and CPUs, and saw shares drop after weaker-than-hoped Azure optics and only 15 million Copilot paid seats.
- Reports indicate Nvidia’s previously floated $100 billion OpenAI investment is being recast into a smaller equity stake, while Amazon is in talks to commit tens of billions as OpenAI seeks large new financing and faces steep projected losses.
- Nvidia remains the dominant AI chip supplier with data-center demand effectively sold out and a next-gen Rubin platform slated to ramp in 2026, with investors eyeing its Feb. 25 earnings as the next sector catalyst.
- TSMC posted record 2025 sales and lifted capex guidance to $52 billion–$56 billion to serve surging AI chip demand, reinforcing its role as the key advanced foundry for designers including Nvidia and Apple.
- Market focus has shifted to execution and profitability, with analysts watching Google Cloud and AWS momentum, large multi-year backlogs, and complex financing like AWS’s $38 billion, seven-year capacity deal with OpenAI.