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AI 'Bubble' Talk Surges as Future Fund Plays Down Bust Risk and Productivity Gains Lag

Massive earnings‑funded capex with expanding data‑centre bets frames a debate spanning social media to sovereign funds.

Overview

  • GlobalData says influencer posts about an “AI bubble” on X jumped nearly 200% in October 2025 compared with September.
  • Future Fund CIO Raphael Arndt said he does not see a bubble yet, noting AI capex has largely been funded by earnings and highlighting broad potential applications.
  • ABS Australian Statistician David Gruen said aggregate productivity gains from AI remain elusive despite rapid technological change.
  • Investor positioning is diverging, with Michael Burry disclosing shorts against Nvidia and Palantir after Nvidia recently touched a $5 trillion market value.
  • The investment scale is extraordinary, with five tech giants planning about $3 trillion for AI infrastructure over five years, UBS estimating $375 billion in AI spending this year, and major investors lifting stakes in data‑centre operators such as CDC.