Overview

• A Bank of America survey shows 33% of global investors now see an AI stock bubble as the biggest market tail risk, up from 11% a month earlier.
• IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas says a dot-com-style correction is plausible yet unlikely to imperil the banking system, noting AI investment has risen by less than 0.4% of U.S. GDP since 2022.
• The Bank of England warned that markets face an elevated chance of a sharp correction due to sensitivity to changing expectations about AI.
• Vendor-financing concerns are mounting after headline megadeals, including Nvidia’s reported $100 billion commitment to OpenAI tied to future chip purchases and OpenAI’s plan to buy 6 gigawatts of AMD chips with an option for up to a 10% stake.
• AI infrastructure spending is boosting GDP and equity gains, but analysts highlight concentration risks and growing use of debt for data centers that could leave the economy vulnerable if investment cools.