Overview
- Markets are focused on the early‑January nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair as President Donald Trump presses for rate cuts, with some strategists warning that over‑easing could reignite inflation.
- The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on the administration’s emergency tariff powers in a decision that could alter trade flows and the inflation path.
- Analysts expect a shift toward small caps, value shares, gold and emerging‑market assets as AI mega‑cap valuations look stretched and the dollar is forecast to weaken.
- Economists project a front‑loaded boost from larger 2026 tax refunds, estimated at roughly $30 billion to $100 billion, alongside continued AI data‑center outlays and business full‑expensing that support investment and credit issuance.
- Moody’s Mark Zandi forecasts weaker job growth with higher unemployment and inflation this year, while a Bisnow survey shows CRE professionals anticipate more deal activity and additional rate cuts but flag deal quality and tariff costs as key risks.