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AI Boom Lifts TSMC to Record, ASML Sees Strong Q4 but Flags 2026 China Hit

US-led export limits are forcing a pivot in where chip revenues come from.

Overview

  • TSMC posted record third‑quarter profit of TWD 452.3 billion (about €12.7 billion) on roughly 30 percent higher revenue, with the CEO saying AI demand is even stronger than three months ago and capacity remains the constraint.
  • TSMC guides fourth‑quarter revenue to $32.2–33.4 billion, moves its N2 process into series production this quarter with a faster 2026 ramp, and accelerates overseas capacity from Arizona to the ESMC project in Dresden.
  • ASML reported €7.5 billion in Q3 revenue and €2.125 billion in net profit, reaffirmed a strong fourth‑quarter sales view of €9.2–9.8 billion, and said total 2026 sales are not expected to fall below 2025.
  • ASML warned of a sharp 2026 decline in China sales after China accounted for 42 percent of Q3 system revenue, reflecting tightened export controls by the United States and corresponding Dutch restrictions.
  • Construction of the TSMC‑led ESMC fab in Dresden remains on schedule, targeting a 2026 roof and 2027 tool installation in a roughly €10 billion venture backed by €5 billion in German support and planned for 2,000 jobs.