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AI Boom Faces 2026 Reality Check as Market Turns to ROI and Differentiation

Investors will focus on which AI players can turn heavy spending into cash flow in 2026.

Overview

  • Fresh analysis points to a split between AI monetizers, heavy spenders and infrastructure suppliers, with valuations expected to diverge as business models get tested.
  • Fund managers warn that if new AI revenues fail to outpace rising capex and depreciation, margins will compress and financial statements will start to reflect the strain in 2026.
  • The Bank of England has cautioned about a potential sharp correction in stretched tech valuations linked to aggressive AI investment.
  • Recent corporate signals are mixed, with Nvidia posting a stronger‑than‑expected $57 billion quarter while Oracle flagged below‑estimate revenue and lifted next‑year capex to $50 billion, hitting its shares.
  • Market concentration remains elevated with the top 10 stocks comprising a record share of the S&P 500, even as a survey shows most UK retail investors expect AI shares to keep climbing next year.