Overview
- The peer-reviewed study estimates a repeat of Europe’s 2003 weather pattern would cause about 17,800 excess deaths across the continent in a single week today.
- Projections rise to roughly 32,000 weekly excess deaths if global temperatures reach 3°C above pre‑industrial levels under comparable conditions.
- Researchers report today’s climate is near 1.5°C above pre‑industrial levels and about 0.7°C warmer than the 2003 average.
- The team applied artificial intelligence and econometric methods to meteorological, temperature, and mortality data from 924 European regions across five major heatwaves since 1994.
- Authors estimate about 10% of deaths could be prevented through expanded air conditioning, shade, ventilation retrofits, and welfare checks, while warning health systems remain underprepared with risks comparable to severe COVID surges.