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4h ago

Agro Dollar Slump Drags October Revenue as Zero‑Duty Windfall Fades

The September zero‑duty decree pulled forward agro dollars, leaving October inflows lower with a real drop in revenue.

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El mercado le exige comprar reservas al BCRA, pero está cerca de tener que vender divisas si la cotización llega a tocar el techo, que está muy cerca
El agro adelantó la liquidación en septiembre y eso impactó fuerte en la de octubre, llevando hacia abajo a la recaudación

Overview

  • Agroexporters liquidated about US$1.117 billion in October, down 84% from September and 56% year on year, while January–October inflows reached roughly US$29.56 billion, up about 40% versus 2024, according to CIARA‑CEC.
  • National tax revenue totaled $16.17 trillion in October, a 26.5% nominal rise but a 3.6% real decline, with ARCA and IARAF citing the suspension of export duties and the end of the PAIS tax; excluding trade‑linked taxes, revenue would have grown about 1% in real terms.
  • Automatic transfers to provinces rose around 1% in real terms, with uneven results as Santa Fe (‑0.4%) and Córdoba (‑0.3%) fell while Buenos Aires Province gained 2.2%, IARAF reported.
  • Non‑automatic transfers fell 28.7% year on year in real terms to $226,109 million, a drop concentrated in CABA; excluding CABA, these transfers to the 23 provinces increased 4.2% in real terms, per Politikón Chaco.
  • The financing backdrop tightened as the government paid about US$822 million to the IMF with net reserves estimated near minus US$11 billion, further maturities approach, and Alejandro Lew was named Secretary of Finance.