Overview

• The 25-year African Growth and Opportunity Act, covering 35 countries and nearly 7,000 product lines, is scheduled to lapse on September 30 without a finalized renewal.
• Talks in Washington include the possibility of a limited one-year extension, and Lesotho’s trade minister has signaled expectations of an extension later this year, but no binding decision has been announced.
• Textiles are seen as especially vulnerable, with industry estimates warning that up to 300,000 jobs could be at risk across countries like Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mauritius, and Tanzania.
• Country-level impacts cited include a projected loss of more than 35,000 jobs in South Africa’s citrus sector, future 47% duties on Madagascar’s vanilla and textiles, a reduced but still significant 15% tariff on Lesotho jeans materials, and 40% on Mauritian industrial goods.
• Analysts note AGOA’s uneven benefits and modest scale relative to other partners, as 2023 U.S. imports under the program totaled about $9.7 billion dominated by crude oil, and new protectionist tariffs under President Donald Trump have further eroded advantages, spurring moves toward AfCFTA, China, and EU ties.