Overview

• Congress missed the September 30 deadline to renew the 25-year program, immediately subjecting more than 6,000 product lines—especially apparel and textiles—to most-favoured-nation duties.
• Attempts to attach renewal to the FY25 defense bill failed on germaneness grounds, a shutdown stalled last-minute action, and a standalone extension bill was introduced without released text.
• Administration figures signaled support for AGOA’s goals and a potential one-year extension, but USTR said Congress must act and no floor vote has been scheduled.
• Exporters in Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar and South Africa face higher costs and job risks, with estimates citing tens of thousands of apparel jobs at stake and examples such as Madagascar vanilla facing a 47% tariff and Kenyan textiles 10% or more.
• Analysts warn the lapse weakens U.S. economic influence as African governments and firms pivot toward AfCFTA, BRICS and Chinese offers, while countries like Namibia flag longer-term risks to diversification and investment.