Overview

• Congress allowed the 25-year African Growth and Opportunity Act to expire on September 30, ending duty-free access and putting more than 6,000 sub‑Saharan African products back under standard U.S. tariffs.
• Apparel-focused economies face the sharpest shock, with reports citing Madagascar vanilla moving to a 47% tariff, Kenyan textiles at 10% or more, and exposure for South African vehicles, metals, chemicals and citrus.
• Analysts warn of export declines, factory closures and job losses across value‑added sectors, with estimates ranging from tens of thousands in specific industries to as many as 1.3 million jobs at risk in AGOA‑dependent supply chains.
• The administration has expressed support for AGOA’s objectives and discussed a possible one‑year extension, and Sen. John Kennedy introduced legislation, yet no renewal has been enacted during the shutdown-disrupted session.
• Business and policy leaders highlight a potential shift toward China, AfCFTA and other partners, while assessments note that resource-heavy exporters such as Angola and Senegal may be less adversely affected.