Overview

• Congress failed to renew the 25-year trade preference before its Sept. 30 deadline after a bid to attach a clean extension to the FY2025 defense bill was ruled non-germane, triggering the return of U.S. tariffs on more than 6,000 sub‑Saharan African exports.
• Analysts and industry groups warn of sharp export declines and job losses in apparel, textiles and specialty agriculture, with estimates of 30,000 textile jobs at risk across Africa and 35,000 citrus jobs at risk in South Africa.
• Specific hits include Madagascar’s vanilla moving from duty-free to a 47% tariff and Kenyan textiles facing duties of 10% or more, while the International Trade Centre expects major drops in apparel and tuna shipments from Kenya, Tanzania, Cape Verde, Lesotho and Eswatini.
• South Africa, which accounted for roughly 54% of AGOA-linked exports, is especially exposed after earlier U.S. tariff actions including a 30% levy on South African goods that already eroded the program’s benefits.
• The White House has reportedly favored a one-year extension and lawmakers from both parties voiced support as Sen. John Kennedy introduced S.2958, yet no text or vote has advanced, and African leaders and businesses are courting alternatives with China touting duty-free access and BRICS and AfCFTA pathways.