Overview

• AGOA lapsed on Sept. 30, ending tariff-free entry for goods from roughly 32 sub-Saharan countries that supplied nearly $10 billion in U.S. imports in 2023.
• USTR Jamieson Greer and key lawmakers voiced support for renewal, an unnamed White House official floated a one-year extension, and Sen. John Kennedy introduced S.2958 as the shutdown delayed release of bill text.
• The International Trade Centre projects a major drop in apparel and tuna exports from Kenya, Tanzania, Cape Verde, Lesotho and Eswatini, while South Africa faces an estimated 17% decline in shipments led by metals, vehicles and chemicals.
• Analysts warn of steep new duties and job losses, citing examples such as Madagascar vanilla facing a 47% tariff, Kenyan textiles shifting to 10% or more, about 30,000 textile jobs at risk across Africa, and 35,000 South African citrus jobs at risk.
• South Africa, which accounted for about 54% of AGOA-linked exports, prepares to pivot to BRICS and AfCFTA partnerships after earlier U.S. tariffs including a 30% levy on South African goods eroded benefits, with Angola and Senegal seen as relatively buffered by oil and minerals.