Overview
- The Agirc‑Arrco social‑partner board is due to decide Wednesday evening on the revaluation that will apply in early November for 14 million private‑sector retirees.
- Officials and forecasts narrow the feasible rise to about +1.2%–+1.9% because rules call for a 0.4‑point undershoot of inflation and a legal cap at the mean wage increase (SMPT) estimated at +1.9%.
- Unions press for the full +1.9% SMPT cap after last year's failed talks, while employer representatives including Medef urge restraint to protect the fund's long‑term health.
- The scheme must keep the equivalent of six months of payments available over a 15‑year horizon; current reserves are roughly €90 billion, about ten months of payouts, and each 1% rise would cost about €1 billion.
- A failure to agree would mean another freeze of complementary pensions and the decision will be watched for its signal on wider French pension policy after last year's non‑revaluation.