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After U.S. Operation Seizing Maduro, GTRI Sees Limited Impact on India

India’s exposure to Venezuela has dwindled under U.S. sanctions, leaving little immediate risk to trade or energy supplies.

Overview

  • U.S. forces conducted a large operation in Venezuela that captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, who were flown to the United States to face narco‑terrorism and drug trafficking charges.
  • GTRI assesses that India will see no meaningful economic or energy disruption from the crisis given low current engagement and sanctions constraints.
  • India’s 2024–25 imports from Venezuela totaled $364.5 million, including $255.3 million of crude, an 81.3% drop from $1.4 billion in crude purchases in 2023–24.
  • Indian exports to Venezuela were $95.3 million, led by $41.4 million in pharmaceuticals, after trade and upstream activity receded sharply following 2019 sanctions.
  • Pointing to Venezuela’s roughly 18% share of global proven oil reserves, GTRI contends U.S. access to that crude was a central motive and urges India to guard strategic autonomy in securing resources.