Overview
- President Donald Trump confirmed Maduro’s arrest on January 3 and pledged a temporary U.S.-led administration to reopen the oil sector to American companies.
- PDVSA began closing groups of wells and asked joint ventures to cut output as storage fills and diluent supplies run short under a U.S. blockade, with analysts estimating 200,000–300,000 bpd already shut in.
- Venezuelan exports have been curtailed by tanker seizures and a naval blockade, with December shipments roughly halved to about 500,000 bpd and blending constraints tightening flows.
- OPEC+ kept a pause on output increases in a Sunday update through at least April, while traders prepare for volatility but point to ample supply that could cap price gains.
- Venezuela holds about 303 billion barrels of reserves yet produces roughly 1.1 million bpd of heavy, acidic crude, and experts say meaningful restoration would require years and large investment.