Overview
- Federal operations have restarted and retroactive pay is arriving, yet many households are using it to cover back bills rather than discretionary spending, according to on‑the‑ground interviews.
- The Congressional Budget Office estimates roughly $11 billion in permanent economic damage from the shutdown’s slowdown in goods and services.
- Florida State University economist Randall Holcombe expects a relatively fast rebound once federal workers deploy their back pay.
- Towson University’s Daraius Irani projects a slower recovery through the first or second quarter of next year and warns that some small‑business losses, especially those serving federal workers, will not be made up.
- Local data underscore the strain, with a Tallahassee co‑op reporting SNAP purchases down 18% in October and 51% so far in November, erasing sales unlikely to be recovered, while missing jobs data and the possibility of a January shutdown could curb holiday spending and complicate the Fed’s December rate debate.