After Maduro Raid, Debate Turns to Taiwan’s Real Risk

Overview

• U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro and flew him to New York for arraignment, triggering global condemnation and a U.N. challenge from China over legality.
• Some officials and scholars warn Beijing could leverage the U.S. action as rhetorical cover against Taiwan, while others argue China’s calculus hinges on military feasibility, economic costs, and uncertainty about U.S. intervention.
• China denounced the raid as a violation of international law and staged its most extensive drills encircling Taiwan, signaling an ability to disrupt outside support.
• TIME’s analysis argues the sharper danger is a prolonged U.S. commitment in Venezuela that diverts carrier groups, bombers, and amphibious assets needed for a Taiwan contingency.
• Maduro’s close ties to China and Russia did not avert his capture, prompting questions about the reliability of great‑power protection as Taiwanese voices split between viewing the raid as deterrence and cautioning that Beijing still lacks practical means to invade.