Overview
- New national surveys from YouGov and Forsa show the AfD ahead of the CDU/CSU by about six points, with YouGov at 28% to 22% and Forsa at 27% to 22%.
- Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s job approval has fallen to new lows, with only 14% to 15% expressing satisfaction and roughly 81% to 84% saying they are dissatisfied.
- Backing for the Brandmauer, the informal pledge by other parties to refuse coalitions with the AfD, has slipped to 46%, down from 54% in February 2025, and 41% now reject it.
- In Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern, an Infratest dimap poll for NDR puts the AfD at 36% and the SPD at 27%, with the CDU at 10% and The Left at 13%.
- Polling institutes warn that weaker party ties and late voting decisions reduce predictability, so these figures reflect a moment in time rather than firm forecasts.