Overview
- Projections in North Rhine-Westphalia put CDU at about 34% and SPD near 22%, while AfD jumped to roughly 16.4% from 5.1% in 2020, according to Infratest dimap for WDR.
- The vote was the first electoral test since February’s federal election and took place in Germany’s most populous state, where runoffs for mayoral and district posts are set for September 28.
- Greens fell to around 11–12%, Die Linke reached about 5.4–5.5%, and the FDP slipped to roughly 3.4%, with local councils and the Ruhr parliament also being elected.
- National polls now place AfD around 25–26%, with one Forsa survey putting it first at 26%, as CDU/CSU hovers near 25% and SPD trails in the mid-teens.
- Despite gains, AfD remains classified by the BfV as a confirmed right‑wing extremist case, and other parties’ cordon sanitaire makes control of mayoralties unlikely without absolute majorities.