Overview
- An INSA survey carried out 14–21 July put the AfD at about 41 percent, leaving it on track to win an outright Landtag majority if results hold.
- The Goodforces launched the Taktisch Wählen campaign with an online postcode tool that gives regional recommendations for first and second votes to boost smaller parties.
- Polls show Greens, FDP and the BSW clustered around four percent and the SPD near five percent, raising the real risk that several parties could miss the 5 percent threshold.
- Local economic shocks such as the Bohai insolvency and worries over jobs and energy have driven voter anger that the AfD is channeling, while the party has shown strong local mobilization and named Ulrich Siegmund as its candidate for minister‑president.
- Germany’s mixed voting system means small shifts around the 5 percent cutoff can flip seat totals and decide whether the AfD governs alone, and the CDU has already ruled out coalitions with both the AfD and the Left.