Overview
- Three polls published Tuesday show the AfD in the lead while the CDU/CSU has dropped below 20 percent in several surveys.
- Forsa's RTL/ntv 'Trendbarometer' (Sept. 29–Oct. 5, n=2,502, ±2.5pp) records AfD at 26 percent, CDU/CSU at 19 percent and the Greens at 17 percent.
- INSA, reported the same day, gives the AfD a larger lead at 30.5 percent versus the Union at 17.5 percent, with the SPD and Greens each at 14.5 percent.
- Public satisfaction with Chancellor Friedrich Merz is at historic lows in recent surveys, with the Forsa poll finding roughly 11 percent satisfied and 87 percent dissatisfied.
- Analysts warn that if these trends continue the Union could lose its role as the largest party, complicating coalition math and increasing pressure on CDU leaders to consider personnel or strategy changes.