Overview

• Initial forecasts from infratest dimap for ARD show the AfD more than tripling its 2020 result to 16.5% across councils, districts and mayoral races.
• The CDU remains the largest force at about 34% while the SPD falls to roughly 22.5%, with heavy losses for the Greens and the Free Democrats.
• Stronger AfD results raise prospects of more mayoral runoffs and council seats, making it harder for mainstream parties to uphold their non-cooperation pledge.
• The vote in Germany’s most populous state reflects voter discontent over economic weakness and immigration that has boosted AfD support nationally.
• Final results are expected Monday, as a weekend INSA poll put the CDU and AfD level at around 25% nationally with the SPD trailing.