Overview
- A ZDF 'Politbarometer' poll conducted Nov. 10–12 found the AfD at 28 percent and the CDU/CSU at 22 percent, leaving the current CDU–SPD coalition without a majority in this snapshot.
- An INSA survey for Bild in Saxony showed the AfD at 41 percent and the CDU at 20 percent, a gap that far exceeds the parties’ standings in the 2024 state vote.
- INSA reports the AfD’s potential voter pool in Saxony could reach 49 percent when including people who say they could imagine voting for the party.
- Smaller parties would struggle under these numbers: ZDF’s poll puts the FDP at about 3 percent, below the 5 percent Bundestag entry threshold that can reshape seat math.
- Pollsters note these are momentary snapshots based on samples and weighting; regional direct mandates and volatile voter ties mean seat outcomes and governing options could still change.