Overview

• Early September poll aggregates place AfD and the Union at about 25% each, with averages in some snapshots keeping the Union slightly ahead.
• Forsa’s Trendbarometer (n=1,006; Aug 29–Sep 1) reports net gains only for AfD (+17%) and Die Linke (+25%) relative to the February vote.
• New AfD backers are predominantly men from rural and small‑town areas, whereas Linke gains center on big cities and younger women.
• Seat projections use the Sainte‑Laguë/Schepers method to map current shares to Bundestag mandates, with FDP likely below 5% and BSW hovering near the threshold.
• Over 80% of respondents see fundamental reforms as necessary, only 13% expect the schwarz‑rot government to pursue them, and 44% cite the economy as the top domestic issue.