Overview
- YouGov, RTL/ntv, Insa and Infratest dimap surveys released in mid‑August show the AfD at about 28 percent while the Union (CDU/CSU) polls near 20–21 percent, giving the AfD a consistent lead.
- The RTL/ntv and Forsa‑based Trendbarometer and YouGov results report Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s approval at historic lows, with roughly 13 percent of respondents saying they are satisfied with his work.
- The Greens have risen to roughly 15–16 percent, their best level in over a year, while the SPD polls near 12 percent and now trails the Greens in several surveys.
- Pollsters note significant uncertainty: sample sizes differ (YouGov n=1,744; RTL/ntv/Forsa about 2,500), margins of error are around ±2.5 points, and undecided/non‑voter shares are high (about 29 percent in RTL/ntv).
- The shift reshapes coalition math and public debate because surveys show a growing share of voters open to some cooperation with the AfD, which could force mainstream parties to change tactics and affect policy choices if the trend holds.