Overview

• Forsa’s RTL/ntv Trendbarometer, conducted 23–29 September among 2,502 respondents, puts the AfD at 27% and the CDU/CSU at 24%, the institute’s largest measured gap between the two.
• The SPD holds at 13%, the Greens edge up to 12%, the Left remains at 11%, BSW stands at 4%, and the FDP at 3%, leaving the black‑red coalition short of a majority in this reading.
• Satisfaction with Chancellor Friedrich Merz falls to a new low of 26%, with 70% of respondents saying they are dissatisfied with his performance.
• On perceived governing competence, 47% see no party as capable, 18% name the Union, and 15% now pick the AfD, a small increase from the prior week.
• Other reputable polls diverge, with INSA and YouGov showing a narrower AfD edge, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen reporting a tie, and Allensbach placing the Union ahead.