Overview
- The INSA poll commissioned by FOCUS, published Friday, shows the AfD at about 41 percent and the CDU at roughly 24 percent, a margin based on 1,000 respondents and a reported ±3.1 percentage‑point error.
- Seat projections from the same poll put the AfD at roughly 40 of 83 seats, meaning it is only a few seats short of an absolute majority in the Landtag.
- The SPD is polling at about the 5 percent threshold and risks exclusion while the Greens, FDP and BSW sit near 4 percent, making the final composition of the parliament highly sensitive to small shifts.
- On the same day the Landeswahlausschuss approved 15 party lists to run for the September 6 election and rejected three lists, formally setting which parties can compete.
- A DIW Berlin simulation published this week estimates central AfD policies could cut regional per‑capita income by about €1,600 yearly and cost roughly 10,000 jobs in Saxony‑Anhalt, which is more vulnerable than the national average.