Overview

• The AfD has climbed to 24% in the latest YouGov poll, its highest-ever result, placing it just 2 percentage points behind the CDU/CSU at 26%.
• The CDU/CSU and SPD, polling at 15%, continue coalition negotiations but face disagreements on migration, energy policy, and defense spending.
• Union and SPD have reportedly reached partial agreements on stricter migration controls, including suspending family reunifications for asylum seekers for two years.
• The SPD and CDU/CSU coalition would fail to secure a parliamentary majority based on current polling, reflecting growing political fragmentation.
• Public dissatisfaction with traditional parties over migration and economic issues continues to fuel the AfD's rise, with its voter potential estimated at 30.5%.