Overview

• An Insa survey for Bild am Sonntag places the AfD at 25% and the Union at 26% nationwide with a ±2.9% margin of error; a concurrent Forsa poll finds the AfD at 26% and the Union at 24%.
• Nearly 68% of Germans expect an AfD candidate to become minister-president in at least one state after the 2026 elections, including 43% anticipating one state and 25% expecting multiple.
• Voters are split on maintaining a cooperation ban between the Union and AfD, with 47% supporting the firewall and 40% opposing its continuation.
• Analysts view the AfD’s sustained polling strength as a setback for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s strategy to out-govern the far-right party.
• State elections in Baden-Württemberg, Rheinland-Pfalz, Sachsen-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in 2026 will test whether the AfD’s polling momentum converts into executive posts.