Overview
- In Baden-Württemberg on March 8, CDU newcomer Manuel Hagel holds a clear polling lead, Greens put forward Cem Özdemir to succeed Winfried Kretschmann, and AfD candidate Markus Frohnmaier ranks highly though others rule out governing with his party.
- In Rheinland-Pfalz two weeks later, the CDU under Gordon Schnieder leads surveys while the SPD risks losing control after 34 years, with Alexander Schweitzer trailing and sometimes polling behind the AfD.
- In Sachsen-Anhalt on September 6, the AfD polls near 40% as Minister-President Reiner Haseloff exits, CDU candidate Sven Schulze faces tough arithmetic, and smaller parties flirting with the 5% hurdle could ease the AfD’s path to a mandate majority; the party is classed as extremist by security services there.
- In Berlin on September 20, Mayor Kai Wegner seeks another term for the CDU as the Left surges with Elif Eralp, the SPD introduces Steffen Krach, and the AfD fields Kristin Brinker with a more conventional pitch to woo disaffected conservatives.
- In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern the same day, Manuela Schwesig’s SPD trails a dominant AfD led by Leif-Erik Holm, with talk of minority or tolerance models if non-AfD coalitions fall short and a local report suggesting BSW has signaled openness to backing an AfD minister-president.