Overview
- The Forsa Trendbarometer published on Nov. 10 shows the AfD at roughly 27 percent and the CDU/CSU at about 20 percent, leaving the government coalition with only about 33 percent combined support.
- Forsa reports 86 percent of respondents are dissatisfied with Chancellor Friedrich Merz while a separate INSA poll found roughly 82 percent dissatisfied, marking the lowest public ratings since the government took office.
- The FDP is polling below the 5 percent threshold in Forsa, which would exclude it from the Bundestag and force arithmetic toward three-party coalitions such as a Union‑Greens‑SPD combination to reach a majority.
- Low national support is increasing unease inside the CDU/CSU, with local party leaders warning that weak government performance is handing ground to the AfD and intensifying internal debate about strategy and leadership.
- If current trends persist, the political effects could include reshaped coalition negotiations, new pressure on Merz and other party leaders, and heightened uncertainty for voters given a large share of undecided respondents.