Overview
- The INSA survey published Aug. 29 puts the Alternative für Deutschland at 29 percent and the CDU/CSU at 20 percent, a nine-point margin that INSA says is the largest in its series.
- The poll records strong public worry about an AfD federal government, with 22 percent saying they would leave Germany if the party came to power and 47 percent saying the country would suffer harm.
- Smaller parties face steep hurdles in the survey, with both the FDP and the BSW at 4 percent below the 5 percent threshold needed for Bundestag entry, a result that complicates arithmetic for possible majorities.
- Respondents are divided on how to respond to AfD gains: 43 percent say a united front of other parties would strengthen the AfD, while 44 percent say the party should be allowed to try governing.
- The poll sampled 1,001 people on Aug. 27–28 with a ±3.1 percentage-point margin of error, and the results sharpen focus on state votes on Sept. 6 in Saxony-Anhalt and Sept. 20 in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern where the AfD is polling strongly and some regional branches face extremist classifications.