Overview
- The INSA 'Sonntagstrend' places the AfD at 28 percent, the Union (CDU/CSU) at 21 percent, the Greens at 14 percent and the SPD at 12 percent, leaving the governing coalition on 33 percent combined compared with 45 percent at the 2025 election.
- The survey was conducted July 20–24, 2026, with 1,204 respondents by phone and online and a maximum margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points, so short-term shifts should be read with statistical caution.
- Three quarters of respondents (75 percent) said they are dissatisfied with Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s performance and the recent personnel reshuffle following Jens Spahn’s resignation has not produced a visible boost in public support.
- Chancellor Merz moved Thorsten Frei to lead the Union parliamentary group, promoted Nina Warken to the Chancellery and installed Carsten Linnemann at Health in an effort to steady the government after Spahn’s exit.
- If current trends hold, the weak vote intentions and low leader approval could increase pressure on coalition policy and personnel, raise the risk of internal disputes inside the Union, and shift opposition tactics in the months ahead.