Overview
- Final polls published Friday put the AfD around 41–43 percent and make an absolute majority a realistic outcome, but a large share of voters remain undecided and several small parties hover near the five‑percent threshold, so the result is uncertain.
- AfD frontrunner Ulrich Siegmund has said he will only govern with an absolute or otherwise “stable” majority and has left open whether he would accept the minister‑president post even if his party wins narrowly.
- The CDU is split on strategy: some leaders want to deny the AfD power even if that means tolerating the Left, while figures such as Sepp Müller reject any cooperation with the Left and argue the AfD should take the mandate if it wins most votes.
- Business groups and economists warn a successful AfD government could deter investment, worsen skilled‑worker shortages and disrupt administration, and some security officials have flagged risks to critical infrastructure tied to the party’s Russia links.
- Thousands mobilised in rival events in Magdeburg in the final days, reflecting deep local economic and demographic grievances that helped fuel AfD support and making the state vote a test with nationwide political consequences.