Overview
- An Insa survey of 1,000 eligible voters in Brandenburg, fielded between Sept. 29 and Oct. 6, put the AfD at 40 percent, the SPD at 20 percent and the CDU at 9 percent.
- A national Ipsos poll, conducted Sept. 30–Oct. 4 for Der Spiegel, found the AfD at 28 percent and the CDU/CSU at 20 percent, the lowest Ipsos-measured level for the Union since 2016.
- Ipsos asked respondents whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz's chancellorship had failed and 48 percent fully agreed with that statement while a further 19 percent rather agreed, with much higher agreement in East Germany.
- Poll results vary noticeably between institutes and have margins of error, with Insa reporting ±3.1 points for Brandenburg and Ipsos using an online sample of about 2,002 people, so these numbers are snapshots not guaranteed forecasts.
- If the Insa Brandenburg figures held on election day the current SPD–CDU coalition would lose its comfortable majority, which could reshape state-level power, affect services and local budgets, and raise pressure on national Union leadership.