Overview
- Insa’s Sonntagstrend shows AfD at 26% and CDU/CSU at 25%, with the Union up one point week over week.
- SPD polls at 14%, the Greens at 12%, and The Left at 11%, while FDP and BSW each sit at 4% alongside 4% for others.
- Roughly 12% of projected votes would fall below the 5% threshold and receive no Bundestag representation.
- On these numbers, a CDU/CSU–SPD majority would not exist, and coalitions involving the AfD or a Union–Left pairing are treated as politically excluded.
- If FDP and BSW fail to enter parliament, the only workable majority not ruled out would be a CDU/CSU–SPD–Greens alliance.