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AfD Hits 39% in Saxony-Anhalt, Nears CDU Nationally, Raising Prospect of 2026 State Breakthrough

Analysts link the surge to recession fears, coalition discord, stalled reforms.

Overview

  • ZDF Politbarometer shows the AfD trailing the CDU by two points nationwide, with the CDU/CSU at 27% roughly five months into the Merz-led coalition.
  • Infratest dimap polling in Saxony-Anhalt puts the AfD at 39% and the CDU at 27%, with the state election scheduled for September 2026.
  • The results heighten the possibility of the AfD securing its first minister-president, with 34-year-old Ulrich Siegmund cited as having real chances.
  • CDU lead candidate Sven Schultze pledges a clear separation from the AfD and says his party will emphasize migration, integration and work policy.
  • Saxony-Anhalt’s demographic decline—population down 26% since 1990 and only 12,526 births in 2024—adds urgency to decisions on immigration and regional sustainability.